Thanks for the insights in this time of confusion. I was a regular donor to your Senatorial campaign. If there was any justice in this world, you’d have that new job in government.
I lived in Tehran in the late 1960’s as part of a diplomatic family. While I’ve watched fundamentalist religion take over all over the world (White Christian Nationalist in the USA), that is not a reason to bomb a city that has close to 10,000,000 people. We are all aware of the diplomatic deficits that Trump has around the complicated global field. I hope we don’t end up having a religious war!
We’ll just become another country that commits genocide!
Cults prey on inherent human weaknesses. They start with some basic flaw in the truth as a seed which grows in their realm of ignorance into a highly profitable crop. Good model for a selfish business.
Nothing in anything Iran has done indicates they want to bomb or destroy Isreal. They talk a big game but they’re a smart culture and understand other countries would be pulled in if they started a war. So why did Isreal start the bombing. Why did Isreal Gut Gaza and starve and kill mothers and children? It’s very complicated and sometime not what it seems.
Regarding gaza, if you educate itslef a bit, how Hamas conducts warfare, you will understand that they(Hamas) goal is to maximize victims among Gaza population as much as possible.
I understand that Hamas is a terrorist organization but that doesn’t give Isreal the right to summarily mow down people. Isreal is known for their intelligence so ask yourself why did they allow a terrorist organization that is weaker than the Isreali intelligence (Pegasus)and army to attack them. Something is very fishy here. My father was a diplomat in the Middle East and what happened, the attack in October did make sense to me. So what was the whole purpose to allow innocent isrealis to be slaughter then the Isreal government turns around and slaughters the other side by 40 fold. They’re killing peacekeepers and individuals that are from the Red Cross who bring in Aid. Educate me?
Ok, so let go point by point. Gazanas are majorly hostile to Israel population, where 2/3 of them biggest dream is to live to the day ,when no Jews are present from the Jordan river to the Sea. You cannot demand that Israel should invest particular effort in well being of hostile population.
Further. Hamas so deeply entrenched themslves into civil infrastructure , that this turn nearly every house into legitimate military target. You may be surprised, but nearly each strike is approved by dedicated military lawer, which check what are possible military gains and possible collateral, and approves strike only if ratio is good. Sounds may be soulless, but these are laws of war.
Yes, true that Israel does not do enough to reduce suffering among civilans. But no military in the world will do . Gazans will continue to suffer as long as they hate Israel. This is Karma
what does it mean nothing. They talk of it nearly every morning. Here juits dfew recent quotes
“The Zionist cancer is gnawing into the lives of Islamic nations.” — December 15, 2000, he called Israel a “cancerous tumour” that “should be removed from the region”
“This cancer will definitely be eradicated, God willing, at the hands of the Palestinian people and the resistance forces throughout the region.” — October 3, 2023, four days before Hamas’s Oct 7 attacks
As a one time 3rd World missile tech analyst at State INR (the shop that said the infamous WMD briefing was bogus) I want to thank you for one of the calmest summations I’ve seen!
Thank you Lucas, this is very insightful analysis. I appreciate your expertise in this fraught moment.
"Like everyone else, I have no special insight into his mind..."
Let me help you with that. Trump is insane. He is a megalomaniac in cognitive decline. He is non-strategic, acting on the whims of his current thoughtline or whisperings of his favored advisor of the moment, most often Stephen Miller. He lives for only three things; Power, Money, and Adulation. As his "policies" are ever exposed as complete failures and his adulation wanes, he acts out his anger, fear and contempt with retribution. He is boxed in and down to his last card... fear and intimidation. We the People demonstrated our absolute disdain and courage this weekend... with 6-10million out on the streets and parks throughout the land. His only move is to double down on the last card. He is at his most vulnerable, and his most dangerous; both are true in this moment.
We have shown our disapproval with No Kings... now we must continue to demonstrate our courage and our resolve, and build on the momentum.
What we can do besides the next action on the street is hit the phonelines to our Senators about the kill the killer bill, i.e the reconcilliation bill before the Senate, which will gut healthcare for tens of millions and balloon the deficit, among other bad things for everyday Americans.
There is a great and simple website, 5calls.org which will give you the phone numbers and suggested talking points for your Senators, simply by putting in your zipcode. Many thousands of citizens are calling their Senators weekly, some daily. But we need hundreds of thousands more in the last half of June. Calling works. Senators say so. Political insiders and former staffers says so. It's easy and takes little time and makes a huge difference.
Let's do this.. WE are the PEOPLE. We have agency. Its our country and our government.
I think this is a realistic, accurate assessment of the situation in Iran. I feel we could have much better relations with Iran and many other nations if we weren't always trying to force them to bend to our will. We preach democracy but practice imperialism.
Thanks Lucas. Your perspective seems spot on to me. Netanyahu is manipulating the U.S. into cleaning up the mess he is making. I am like you, I feel a verifiable deal could have been made and the Iranian people would welcome it.
Excellent post. Very thorough and citing all possibilities. Yes! We must let the people of Iran know that we are with them. War would be a foolish waste and playing into the hands of that other fascist, Netanyahu! Genocide is not the answer to the world's problems. Neither is disappearing good people or creating new concentration camps. RESIST! It boggles my mind that you did not win that election. A sad loss for us all!
Thank you for this clear-eyed perspective. One huge problem is that this Administration is made up of amateurs; no one is really qualified for their jobs, or has the integrity, moral fiber and intellect required. And the "captain" of our "ship" is a wild card, with no real understanding of geo-politics and is as deficient as all the others he has surrounded himself with. I am very worried. Do people get the irony of talking about regime change in Iran to get rid of an autocrat, while we are rushing headlong into autocracy here at home?!!
There are three main reasons Trump needs a war. 1- the short-term economic benefit because war creates jobs, 2- the wealthy grow wealthier, especially those who invest in companies that supply the 'war machine', and 3- to deflect from and improve his plummeting approval numbers.
Capitalism is ugly. It created trump, musk, putin...the full range of evil, demented oligarchs. The oligarchy is global and has no patriotic ties anywhere. America is a pawn like everywhere else and this is what happens when evil, inhumane people can amass enormous wealth and power to turn against everyone else. These nasty little demons bought the U.S. government and we're all paying for it.
Capitalism is built on the fundamental character of higher animals that enables survival. Self love. It detaches us from the loving instinct that brings us together to cooperate and build our prosperity.
As a human culture builds the assets for survival two things happen. First there is the competition that creates a hierarchical structure of human relationships. And second, it distances us from our fellow humans leading to mistrust of the "other", a logical defense mechanism.
As we prepare to destroy Iran, I reflect on how I wasted 36 years of my life being an intelligence officer and analyst
As a an Army Intel officer and civil servant who held a TS/SCI for 36 years, and was a "plank holder" in the creation of the Marine Corps' Intelligence Activity (originally Intelligence Center, but some idiot decided "activity" sounded better?), and probably the first senior intelligence analyst they hired (1990), I was privy to a fair of amount of the intel/information, as well as unclassified information, that flowed around the Intelligence Community (IC) during those years, although I was the senior analyst for Latin America and at one point, the Futures Analyst. If one is a good intelligence officer, you have to recognize that the whole globe is interconnected (Hezballah's presence in the "triangle area" in Lat Am being an example, as well as their bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Argentina in 1998 (?), hard to remember at my age) in revenge for something the IDF did, don't remember the exact circumstances.
Anyway, Netanyahu has been screaming that the Iranians are coming has been going on since he took office (after his political opponent was assassinated under suspicious circumstances).
That was began with his first term 1996-99, and continued with his second term2009-2021, the his current one begun in 2022. Ever since, and every year, the IDF and the Government of Israel (GOI) have announced with the regularity of a metronome that the Iranians were just two minutes away from producing an MRBM/ICBM or whatever that had a nuclear (not just atomic) warhead on it, and the US should destroy Iran NOW. The 6+1 accord was working just fine, and the Iranians were abiding by it, and allowing IAEA inspectors to wander around their facilities. The Government of Israel has adamantly REFUSED to let the same inspectors look at THEIR nuclear facilities.
Back in around 2007 (again, may not have the exact year right), I happened to see two SIGNT messages, one from an Iranian general, the other from an Iranian doctor, both complaining about the 6 plus 1 agreement (or was it the JACOPA then?) Hard to keep track of all this. The General was complaining that adhering to the accord was a mistake, because generals always complain about having a weapons systems taking away. The doctor was complaining because he had thousands of patients who could not be treated for cancer, because there were not enough nuclear isotopes being produced because of the accord. So much for a rigorous, secretive nuclear program.
Your readers should also remember that when we had an Army division and a Marine MEF marching up the Tigris-Euphrates river valley (post-9/11) when we invaded Iraq under entirely false pretenses thanks to Dick Cheney and his deliberate false intelligence reporting (I was in the DIA building at that time, the same place his 'boys' were producing the fake report that Gen. Colin Powell fell on his sword on, and trashed his whole career as a result), that Israel was screaming that the Saddam Hussein had moved all the "weapons of mass destruction" to Syria, and that we needed to invade Syria!
Right now, Neytanyau is fighting a "Forever War" in order for he and his family to stay out of jail (Long-standing corruption charges, the Russian mafia moved into Israel big-time after the USSR collapsed), and seize southern Lebanon, most of Syria (Israel has NO interest in a stable and democratic Syria for a variety of selfish reasons, hence the seizure of a strategic mountain and the continued bombing of Syria), the driving out and or massacre of the remaining Palestinian population (ethnic cleansing), to include the entire West Bank, which did not have anything to do with the Hamas attack now over two years ago. The average Israeli does not realize he/she is living under a military dictatorship. Maybe someday they'll wake up, but don't bet on it.
There is apparently loose talk going around the White House about using the "Mother of All Bombs" on Iran. Is so, it won't stop there. All without any consultation from Congress. "Orginalism?" "Textualism"? The power to send the nation to war resides with Congress, as stipulated in the original Constitution. Congress gave that power up in 1950 for the Korean War, but it would be nice if they reasserted their Constitutional prerogative, wouldn't it?
And while you folks are at it, remember that Dick Cheney as the SecDef sent over a briefing team during the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran War (which Iraq started over the Shatt al-Arab) with folders full of the ;Crown Jewels' of the IC, satellite imagery showing the force dispositon of the Iranian army. Although the Iranians had been reduced to sending even teenage boys into combat, they were close to winning, battered as they were. Cheney's briefers showed the Iraqis where to fire their remaining Soviet-era chemical artillery rounds, and as a result broke the Iranian offensive, and the Iranians had to sue for peace. You think the Iranian government has forgotten that?
Oh, and about that 1988 shootdown by the USS Vincenes of an Iranian commercial airliner flying a daily milk-run to Egypt by a rank-hungry captain who wanted his admiral's insignia and a battle streamer, all of which was duly provided by the USN, AFTER he lied to the Board of Investigation. Never trust a Navy Board of Investigation. He had disobeyed orders not to enter Iranian waters, but he did so anyway, hoping to get a shot in. One contractor disclosed later the Vincenes was using the "beta" version of an new IFF system, so that although the airliner was squawking on the right freq, the new system was misfunctioning, and showed the aircraft descending, ostensibly towards the Vincenes (it wasn't). George Bush, Sr. refused adamantly to apologize for killing some 289 (not sure of the exact number now) people on board, to include a group of Egyptian army officers.
It's wonderful to be in the right all the time, isn't it?
And yes, Lucas is right -- the new duly elected government of Iran in 1954 announced it would end its arrangement with the UK that had been in place for almost a century, in which the UK got preferential treatment, so the UK government asked the US to do something, and so the CIA grandson of Teddy Roosevelt, Kermit Alexander, obtained around one million dollars and began a information operations campaign to overthrow the government. It worked, and we put the Shah back into power, and the CIA organized his secret police, the SAVAK, who soon earned a reputation for sophisticated brutality (sometimes not so sophisticated brutality).
The embassy seizure occurred when the Shah, forced out and dying of cancer, was admitted by Jimmy Carter into the US for treatment. One US general told his Iranian counterparts to just gun down the demonstrators. They fortunately ignored his advice. Nelson Rockefeller and Chase Bank, who both had around $2 million dollars (with inflation, much more) invested in the Shah's government (with kickbacks), twisted Carter's arm into letting the Shah die on US soil. Boy Howdy! That led to the developent of Delta Force, incidentally...after the Desert One fiasco.
Yea, I have in the past eight years watched 36 years of my year go down the drain (I would use another term, but this is a family-friendly forum.)
It is is a horrible thing to see you performed your life' work in vain. I was looking outwards for the enemy, and I never had a clue they were behind me. My dad after he retired from the Navy (Intel officer, Russian expert, wrote the book) went to work on Capitol Hill for Republicans, because he was from southern Indiana, which has been Republican since 1860. What a colossal waste of my time being a Republican for most of my life. For that, I get a senator from Utah who gets away with making gleeful psychopathic remarks about the terrorist murder of a Wisconsin politician and her husband, and the near-death of a state senator and his wife?
Glad my dad didn't live to see all this. Of course, he had Alzheimer's compounded by deafness, so maybe he wouldn't have comprehended all this.
Trump himself has always campaigned against our involvement in foreign wars … central to his isolationist stance. Some of the most way out there nutty conservatives, plus Trump’s base, don’t want us dragged into this war — Marjorie Taylor Green, Matt Gaetz, Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon.
My fear is that no matter what he does, these (ahem) “fine people” will rejoin his fold. I think he knows that, and so is unconstrained. I hope I’m wrong.
Excellent analysis. Full disclosure. I am a nuclear scientist. I spent my career in the nuclear industry, including a stint as an International Sales Manager. I dealt with just about every advanced and developing country on earth, in science and medicine, including Iran, Israel, India, Pakistan and many other nations where nuclear medicine technology is in use.
Every human being has a right to the benefits of nuclear technology. But one thing is paramount. We must strive to BAN THE BOMB, globally. Preventing proliferation of small numbers of WMDs does little to truly achieve global security, when existing members of the "nuclear club" possess TENS OF THOUSANDS of nuclear warheads.
If we are unable to negotiate this situation, Iran will merely be one of many nations that eventually "go nuclear". They will have no choice. The technology is mature and widespread, and the only obstacle is obtaining enough fissile material. A covert market exists and will (in the absence of arms reductions talks) inexorably expand.
I'm pretty sure that tRump will jump right into this war. His rhetoric is preparing the ground for that now. See the dismissal of his own DNI's testimony before congress. His motivation is only to act like a tough guy and produce the next shiny object deflecting attention away from the rest of the mess he's creating in this country from the Ice raids, illegal deployment of the military, to the immoral budget bill his toads are trying to pass in congress. A reasoned analysis of the situation given by Lucas would hold no sway with these idiots.
Thanks for the insights in this time of confusion. I was a regular donor to your Senatorial campaign. If there was any justice in this world, you’d have that new job in government.
Lucy, same.
And the world would be better for it.
same here wish you were in the political sphere Lucas
I lived in Tehran in the late 1960’s as part of a diplomatic family. While I’ve watched fundamentalist religion take over all over the world (White Christian Nationalist in the USA), that is not a reason to bomb a city that has close to 10,000,000 people. We are all aware of the diplomatic deficits that Trump has around the complicated global field. I hope we don’t end up having a religious war!
We’ll just become another country that commits genocide!
The Christian nationalists are a serious cult and they are in every small town and their church promotes their behavior…go listen
Cults prey on inherent human weaknesses. They start with some basic flaw in the truth as a seed which grows in their realm of ignorance into a highly profitable crop. Good model for a selfish business.
MAB, I was with you until “we will just become another country that commits genocide.”
Sorry, too late. That is us.
Yep!
Your last name has an interesting historical context.
I think intention to eliminate Israel is quite a reason to bomb them
Nothing in anything Iran has done indicates they want to bomb or destroy Isreal. They talk a big game but they’re a smart culture and understand other countries would be pulled in if they started a war. So why did Isreal start the bombing. Why did Isreal Gut Gaza and starve and kill mothers and children? It’s very complicated and sometime not what it seems.
Before you opine on the MIddle East and genocide - could you please educate yourself enough to at least spell Israel correctly?
I did misspell it didn’t I! Thanks for the correction! Those damn auto populated names!
Regarding gaza, if you educate itslef a bit, how Hamas conducts warfare, you will understand that they(Hamas) goal is to maximize victims among Gaza population as much as possible.
I understand that Hamas is a terrorist organization but that doesn’t give Isreal the right to summarily mow down people. Isreal is known for their intelligence so ask yourself why did they allow a terrorist organization that is weaker than the Isreali intelligence (Pegasus)and army to attack them. Something is very fishy here. My father was a diplomat in the Middle East and what happened, the attack in October did make sense to me. So what was the whole purpose to allow innocent isrealis to be slaughter then the Isreal government turns around and slaughters the other side by 40 fold. They’re killing peacekeepers and individuals that are from the Red Cross who bring in Aid. Educate me?
Ok, so let go point by point. Gazanas are majorly hostile to Israel population, where 2/3 of them biggest dream is to live to the day ,when no Jews are present from the Jordan river to the Sea. You cannot demand that Israel should invest particular effort in well being of hostile population.
Further. Hamas so deeply entrenched themslves into civil infrastructure , that this turn nearly every house into legitimate military target. You may be surprised, but nearly each strike is approved by dedicated military lawer, which check what are possible military gains and possible collateral, and approves strike only if ratio is good. Sounds may be soulless, but these are laws of war.
Yes, true that Israel does not do enough to reduce suffering among civilans. But no military in the world will do . Gazans will continue to suffer as long as they hate Israel. This is Karma
And you know this personally?
what does it mean nothing. They talk of it nearly every morning. Here juits dfew recent quotes
“The Zionist cancer is gnawing into the lives of Islamic nations.” — December 15, 2000, he called Israel a “cancerous tumour” that “should be removed from the region”
time.com
+15
en.wikipedia.org
+15
nypost.com
+15
.
“The superfluous and fake Zionist regime will disappear from the landscape.” — August 15, 2012, during a meeting with war veterans
en.wikipedia.org
.
“No cure for the barbaric Israeli regime but to be annihilated.” — November 2014 tweet attributed to Khamenei: “No cure … but annihilation”
en.wikipedia.org
.
“There will be no such thing as Israel in 25 years.” — September 9, 2015, during remarks on the JCPOA framework
en.wikipedia.org
+1
en.wikipedia.org
+1
.
“This cancer will definitely be eradicated, God willing, at the hands of the Palestinian people and the resistance forces throughout the region.” — October 3, 2023, four days before Hamas’s Oct 7 attacks
en.wikipedia.org
.
As a one time 3rd World missile tech analyst at State INR (the shop that said the infamous WMD briefing was bogus) I want to thank you for one of the calmest summations I’ve seen!
Thank you Lucas, this is very insightful analysis. I appreciate your expertise in this fraught moment.
"Like everyone else, I have no special insight into his mind..."
Let me help you with that. Trump is insane. He is a megalomaniac in cognitive decline. He is non-strategic, acting on the whims of his current thoughtline or whisperings of his favored advisor of the moment, most often Stephen Miller. He lives for only three things; Power, Money, and Adulation. As his "policies" are ever exposed as complete failures and his adulation wanes, he acts out his anger, fear and contempt with retribution. He is boxed in and down to his last card... fear and intimidation. We the People demonstrated our absolute disdain and courage this weekend... with 6-10million out on the streets and parks throughout the land. His only move is to double down on the last card. He is at his most vulnerable, and his most dangerous; both are true in this moment.
We have shown our disapproval with No Kings... now we must continue to demonstrate our courage and our resolve, and build on the momentum.
What we can do besides the next action on the street is hit the phonelines to our Senators about the kill the killer bill, i.e the reconcilliation bill before the Senate, which will gut healthcare for tens of millions and balloon the deficit, among other bad things for everyday Americans.
There is a great and simple website, 5calls.org which will give you the phone numbers and suggested talking points for your Senators, simply by putting in your zipcode. Many thousands of citizens are calling their Senators weekly, some daily. But we need hundreds of thousands more in the last half of June. Calling works. Senators say so. Political insiders and former staffers says so. It's easy and takes little time and makes a huge difference.
Let's do this.. WE are the PEOPLE. We have agency. Its our country and our government.
I think this is a realistic, accurate assessment of the situation in Iran. I feel we could have much better relations with Iran and many other nations if we weren't always trying to force them to bend to our will. We preach democracy but practice imperialism.
Except when it comes to Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Follow the money
Will bombing Iran make Trump more or less wealthy. It depends on what Saudi Arabia and Qatar saw. If it ticks them off he won’t do it
Thanks Lucas. Your perspective seems spot on to me. Netanyahu is manipulating the U.S. into cleaning up the mess he is making. I am like you, I feel a verifiable deal could have been made and the Iranian people would welcome it.
Excellent post. Very thorough and citing all possibilities. Yes! We must let the people of Iran know that we are with them. War would be a foolish waste and playing into the hands of that other fascist, Netanyahu! Genocide is not the answer to the world's problems. Neither is disappearing good people or creating new concentration camps. RESIST! It boggles my mind that you did not win that election. A sad loss for us all!
Thank you for this clear-eyed perspective. One huge problem is that this Administration is made up of amateurs; no one is really qualified for their jobs, or has the integrity, moral fiber and intellect required. And the "captain" of our "ship" is a wild card, with no real understanding of geo-politics and is as deficient as all the others he has surrounded himself with. I am very worried. Do people get the irony of talking about regime change in Iran to get rid of an autocrat, while we are rushing headlong into autocracy here at home?!!
There are three main reasons Trump needs a war. 1- the short-term economic benefit because war creates jobs, 2- the wealthy grow wealthier, especially those who invest in companies that supply the 'war machine', and 3- to deflect from and improve his plummeting approval numbers.
Capitalism is ugly. It created trump, musk, putin...the full range of evil, demented oligarchs. The oligarchy is global and has no patriotic ties anywhere. America is a pawn like everywhere else and this is what happens when evil, inhumane people can amass enormous wealth and power to turn against everyone else. These nasty little demons bought the U.S. government and we're all paying for it.
Capitalism is built on the fundamental character of higher animals that enables survival. Self love. It detaches us from the loving instinct that brings us together to cooperate and build our prosperity.
As a human culture builds the assets for survival two things happen. First there is the competition that creates a hierarchical structure of human relationships. And second, it distances us from our fellow humans leading to mistrust of the "other", a logical defense mechanism.
Yeah, capitalism is inherently anti-social. It's inherently anti-democratic. It's inherently inhumane.
You summed it all up right here!
Yeah, I wish it wasn't so. Unless we change our economic system there will be no real democracy.
As we prepare to destroy Iran, I reflect on how I wasted 36 years of my life being an intelligence officer and analyst
As a an Army Intel officer and civil servant who held a TS/SCI for 36 years, and was a "plank holder" in the creation of the Marine Corps' Intelligence Activity (originally Intelligence Center, but some idiot decided "activity" sounded better?), and probably the first senior intelligence analyst they hired (1990), I was privy to a fair of amount of the intel/information, as well as unclassified information, that flowed around the Intelligence Community (IC) during those years, although I was the senior analyst for Latin America and at one point, the Futures Analyst. If one is a good intelligence officer, you have to recognize that the whole globe is interconnected (Hezballah's presence in the "triangle area" in Lat Am being an example, as well as their bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Argentina in 1998 (?), hard to remember at my age) in revenge for something the IDF did, don't remember the exact circumstances.
Anyway, Netanyahu has been screaming that the Iranians are coming has been going on since he took office (after his political opponent was assassinated under suspicious circumstances).
That was began with his first term 1996-99, and continued with his second term2009-2021, the his current one begun in 2022. Ever since, and every year, the IDF and the Government of Israel (GOI) have announced with the regularity of a metronome that the Iranians were just two minutes away from producing an MRBM/ICBM or whatever that had a nuclear (not just atomic) warhead on it, and the US should destroy Iran NOW. The 6+1 accord was working just fine, and the Iranians were abiding by it, and allowing IAEA inspectors to wander around their facilities. The Government of Israel has adamantly REFUSED to let the same inspectors look at THEIR nuclear facilities.
Back in around 2007 (again, may not have the exact year right), I happened to see two SIGNT messages, one from an Iranian general, the other from an Iranian doctor, both complaining about the 6 plus 1 agreement (or was it the JACOPA then?) Hard to keep track of all this. The General was complaining that adhering to the accord was a mistake, because generals always complain about having a weapons systems taking away. The doctor was complaining because he had thousands of patients who could not be treated for cancer, because there were not enough nuclear isotopes being produced because of the accord. So much for a rigorous, secretive nuclear program.
Your readers should also remember that when we had an Army division and a Marine MEF marching up the Tigris-Euphrates river valley (post-9/11) when we invaded Iraq under entirely false pretenses thanks to Dick Cheney and his deliberate false intelligence reporting (I was in the DIA building at that time, the same place his 'boys' were producing the fake report that Gen. Colin Powell fell on his sword on, and trashed his whole career as a result), that Israel was screaming that the Saddam Hussein had moved all the "weapons of mass destruction" to Syria, and that we needed to invade Syria!
Right now, Neytanyau is fighting a "Forever War" in order for he and his family to stay out of jail (Long-standing corruption charges, the Russian mafia moved into Israel big-time after the USSR collapsed), and seize southern Lebanon, most of Syria (Israel has NO interest in a stable and democratic Syria for a variety of selfish reasons, hence the seizure of a strategic mountain and the continued bombing of Syria), the driving out and or massacre of the remaining Palestinian population (ethnic cleansing), to include the entire West Bank, which did not have anything to do with the Hamas attack now over two years ago. The average Israeli does not realize he/she is living under a military dictatorship. Maybe someday they'll wake up, but don't bet on it.
There is apparently loose talk going around the White House about using the "Mother of All Bombs" on Iran. Is so, it won't stop there. All without any consultation from Congress. "Orginalism?" "Textualism"? The power to send the nation to war resides with Congress, as stipulated in the original Constitution. Congress gave that power up in 1950 for the Korean War, but it would be nice if they reasserted their Constitutional prerogative, wouldn't it?
And while you folks are at it, remember that Dick Cheney as the SecDef sent over a briefing team during the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran War (which Iraq started over the Shatt al-Arab) with folders full of the ;Crown Jewels' of the IC, satellite imagery showing the force dispositon of the Iranian army. Although the Iranians had been reduced to sending even teenage boys into combat, they were close to winning, battered as they were. Cheney's briefers showed the Iraqis where to fire their remaining Soviet-era chemical artillery rounds, and as a result broke the Iranian offensive, and the Iranians had to sue for peace. You think the Iranian government has forgotten that?
Oh, and about that 1988 shootdown by the USS Vincenes of an Iranian commercial airliner flying a daily milk-run to Egypt by a rank-hungry captain who wanted his admiral's insignia and a battle streamer, all of which was duly provided by the USN, AFTER he lied to the Board of Investigation. Never trust a Navy Board of Investigation. He had disobeyed orders not to enter Iranian waters, but he did so anyway, hoping to get a shot in. One contractor disclosed later the Vincenes was using the "beta" version of an new IFF system, so that although the airliner was squawking on the right freq, the new system was misfunctioning, and showed the aircraft descending, ostensibly towards the Vincenes (it wasn't). George Bush, Sr. refused adamantly to apologize for killing some 289 (not sure of the exact number now) people on board, to include a group of Egyptian army officers.
It's wonderful to be in the right all the time, isn't it?
And yes, Lucas is right -- the new duly elected government of Iran in 1954 announced it would end its arrangement with the UK that had been in place for almost a century, in which the UK got preferential treatment, so the UK government asked the US to do something, and so the CIA grandson of Teddy Roosevelt, Kermit Alexander, obtained around one million dollars and began a information operations campaign to overthrow the government. It worked, and we put the Shah back into power, and the CIA organized his secret police, the SAVAK, who soon earned a reputation for sophisticated brutality (sometimes not so sophisticated brutality).
The embassy seizure occurred when the Shah, forced out and dying of cancer, was admitted by Jimmy Carter into the US for treatment. One US general told his Iranian counterparts to just gun down the demonstrators. They fortunately ignored his advice. Nelson Rockefeller and Chase Bank, who both had around $2 million dollars (with inflation, much more) invested in the Shah's government (with kickbacks), twisted Carter's arm into letting the Shah die on US soil. Boy Howdy! That led to the developent of Delta Force, incidentally...after the Desert One fiasco.
Yea, I have in the past eight years watched 36 years of my year go down the drain (I would use another term, but this is a family-friendly forum.)
It is is a horrible thing to see you performed your life' work in vain. I was looking outwards for the enemy, and I never had a clue they were behind me. My dad after he retired from the Navy (Intel officer, Russian expert, wrote the book) went to work on Capitol Hill for Republicans, because he was from southern Indiana, which has been Republican since 1860. What a colossal waste of my time being a Republican for most of my life. For that, I get a senator from Utah who gets away with making gleeful psychopathic remarks about the terrorist murder of a Wisconsin politician and her husband, and the near-death of a state senator and his wife?
Glad my dad didn't live to see all this. Of course, he had Alzheimer's compounded by deafness, so maybe he wouldn't have comprehended all this.
An important perspective. Thank you.
And helpful.
We need you in DC.
Thank you. Very helpful analysis. I sincerely hope cooler heads like yours will prevail.
Does this administration even have any cooler heads??!
Trump himself has always campaigned against our involvement in foreign wars … central to his isolationist stance. Some of the most way out there nutty conservatives, plus Trump’s base, don’t want us dragged into this war — Marjorie Taylor Green, Matt Gaetz, Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon.
My fear is that no matter what he does, these (ahem) “fine people” will rejoin his fold. I think he knows that, and so is unconstrained. I hope I’m wrong.
David brooks mantra. Trump and the Republicans are bad but the Democrats are worse so keep voting Republican
David Brooks has been asleep since 1968! GH
Third grade flunk out???!
Do they have a head that isn’t empty
Have seen no indication, still waiting.
Twila, not even close to anything resembling cool.
If there are, someone please point them out.
Or even someone who understands consequences?
Excellent analysis. Full disclosure. I am a nuclear scientist. I spent my career in the nuclear industry, including a stint as an International Sales Manager. I dealt with just about every advanced and developing country on earth, in science and medicine, including Iran, Israel, India, Pakistan and many other nations where nuclear medicine technology is in use.
Every human being has a right to the benefits of nuclear technology. But one thing is paramount. We must strive to BAN THE BOMB, globally. Preventing proliferation of small numbers of WMDs does little to truly achieve global security, when existing members of the "nuclear club" possess TENS OF THOUSANDS of nuclear warheads.
If we are unable to negotiate this situation, Iran will merely be one of many nations that eventually "go nuclear". They will have no choice. The technology is mature and widespread, and the only obstacle is obtaining enough fissile material. A covert market exists and will (in the absence of arms reductions talks) inexorably expand.
As I said before, BAN THE BOMB. NOW!
I'm pretty sure that tRump will jump right into this war. His rhetoric is preparing the ground for that now. See the dismissal of his own DNI's testimony before congress. His motivation is only to act like a tough guy and produce the next shiny object deflecting attention away from the rest of the mess he's creating in this country from the Ice raids, illegal deployment of the military, to the immoral budget bill his toads are trying to pass in congress. A reasoned analysis of the situation given by Lucas would hold no sway with these idiots.
Yes! I think your analysis is totally and dead on target!