In rural Kansas, my small town, of 8,000, that was thriving with small business etc., could tell you why automation doesn't work. When I was growing up there, it was 100's of small farmers that fed the economy. 100's of families bought groceries, clothing, appliances, farm equipment from their farm income. Then big farming came in and squeezed out the small farmer. 10 farmer families do not fuel the economy like hundreds of farm families. The economy dipped and population dropped to 5,000. Town folks blame lazy people and immigrants. Nobody talks about the corporate farmer.
Because the Corporate farmer is admired. They are astute and savvy business men. The town residents don't link middle class purchase power in an economy to a strong economy. They believe the trickle down theory of economics...and as a fairly conservative community they are easily distracted by the culture wars.
The town has a Walmart...which everyone was excited to get for the lower prices. The two smaller grocery stores who employed more people than Walmart does, closed down. So to me it's simple...more people who earn a livable wage, will fuel the economy...not streamlined manufacturing that reduces the number of employees.
A Walmart store in a new community can reduce the average income by driving out smaller, local businesses due to its low prices, leading to job losses and a decrease in overall economic activity within the community, as smaller businesses often pay higher wages and reinvest more profits locally compared to large corporations like Walmart; this phenomenon is often called "the Walmart effect." https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/12/walmart-prices-poverty-economy/681122/
Walmart's business strategy is to purchase products from local manufacturers until Walmart has over 50% of the revenue for the manufacturer. Next step - ask the manufacturer if they can make it cheaper to wholesale. The manufacturer is unable to. Walmart says the product needs to be cheaper or they will buy from overseas. Since Walmart has over 50% of its revenue, the manufacturer goes out of business.
For example, let's say Walmart is buying snowshoes from a US manufacturer. Over 50% of their wholesale customer base is from Walmart. Walmart wants to buy the snowshoes at a lower wholesale price or they will buy from overseas. That cuts into the snowshoe guy's revenue causing the snowshoe guy to go out of business. Walmart pulls out and buys from overseas. The Snowshoe guy still goes out of business and there go the jobs. Shareholders make more money. But who has the income to buy the snowshoes now?
And this is why I shop privately owned grocery stores, and small businesses in Berkeley and neighboring communities. I will go to Penneys and Macys in the mall in Concord for a few things, but everything else, no. We're getting a new heat pump stove manufactured about 10 blocks away and the company (four blocks away) that put up our solar is going to install a storage battery next month.
Make work is not the answer. Lucas isn't suggesting make work. Innovation is a good thing.
We need to enforce anti trust laws to allow for competition. We need to enforce overtime laws so there is a penalty to employers. We need to adjust the work week. We need to allow for a social safety net so employers know the employees have an option.
The problem isn't the efficiencies of Walmart and Amazon, it is that they are so large and powerful they can dictate wages and dictate prices to small manufacturers.
In many ways Walmart and Amazon are not more efficient, but they are more powerful. They don't have to have a better service or product, because they are the only game in town.
We need to swing the balance of power pendulum back toward the people.
I'm not tyng immigrants to this or believe town folks are lazy. They just have a sense that there is some reason for the decline. Rather than take the time to understand the decide, they are parroting Fox news explanations for why the economy feels so messed up..
Capitalism works as long as there is government to ensure the playing field remains reasonably level. Unchecked market power is a malignancy that leads to oligopoly which leads to authoritarianism. We are on the doorstep of this.
The Capitalist solution to this is Trade Unions. Since the employers have a monopoly on jobs the workers must secure control over available labor. Or do we want to go back to the pre-union days with 90 hour work weeks, no benefits and child labor?
Hopefully we are on the doorstep, but I'm guessing we've entered the building already.
What you said is obvious and blatant. What Lucas has said is obvious and blatant. Why doesn't the American public think unchecked power is the problem?
Hopefully Lucas has a Part III where he discusses how to let the public know what the real problem is. If the public understands, they will demand a fix.
Yes, this is what is happening right under our noses. A new robot is making meal deliveries in our town. There won't be a job at all for many people pretty soon. But how to make this message get out? Stories are the key. "Muckracking" journalism was key to the Progressive Era.
Lucas, I read your article with great interest. I know what you say is true and is happening in real time. What I need is a specific "how to" article on what to do about it. I donated to your campaigns, believe in you, and voted for you...as I did for the majority of Democrats on my ballot. I've marched, written letters, made phone calls and signed petitions. I don't have buyer's remorse, but I am frustrated that my known go-tos seems so futile. I am a retired USAF senior NCO who went on to teach (retired now also) Special Education. I do not have the income to fight back with money and I fear that is the weapon required. I thank you for your insight and love that you are on Substack.
I receive daily requests for financial donations…but I won’t give money… but I will give my time. Tell the people what we can do. Get petitions signed, hold town halls, rally your base with truth. We are ready and we are listening.
Attend ALL local meetings, your school board, your city council, your county commissioner, your Chamber of Congress, ALL. Fill your community with hope. Dont be a fence sitter.
I donated heavily (for me) to both of your campaigns. I like your philosophy and what you say. I read your essay about how personally expensive campaigns are and I understand, but I hope you run again. If you do, I will again donate heavily.
There is a lot of very sound economics in your argument. But what about psychology? It isn't rational but a lot of people just seem to love billionaires. Look at West Virginia, one of the poorest states. The Governor is billionaire Jim Justice, he is very popular. All of his businesses use bankruptcy as a negotiating tactic. He pays bills only when forced. Of course, Justice hates Unions. But Justice is 6 ft, 6 in. tall, coaches a girls basketball team and owns the Greenbriar Hotel, a beloved institution.
Technology can do wonderful things. Innovation is the driving force. We need to consider what is ethical. Just because it can be done doesn't make it a good idea. Computers were supposed to save us time. Now we are slaves to them.
Automating everything and reducing the number of jobs reduces the number of consumers to purchase products. Unintended consequences. We need to look ahead and around the corners to avoid the consequences. Will we learn? Probably not.
This an excellent read about this topic. Have you shared or discussed with any current members of Congress, particularly Democrats? Our leaders need to be kept informed about all of these possible scenarios! I fear the future for my grandchildren and grandchildren nieces!
All well said and true and I agree there is almost no stopping this in America. Information I have read what I think are reliable sources (McKinney Global Institute, Worl Economic Forum) it seems AI will create more jobs than it will eliminate, BUT they will be jobs that require much more critical thinking skills than the jobs it eliminates and the US this will be a big problem as our education will do less and less to encourage critical thinking skills, and the DOGE brothers are tight, we will need to import high quality workers from other nations. Somehow we have to get that message out to the voters of America...this is what they choose, do not blame the billionaire, blame yourselves and do not do any whining. There may be a small chance we can reclaim some of our rights if enough voters see the light and vote out a few maga MOCs to take the majority away from trump but this will require a lot of work on the part of people who value democracy and I am still waiting to hear concrete actions the DNC or anyone plans to take...how will the DNC reach more voters...what they did last time did not work and all I hear from them is we have to work harder but not how we will work smarter. At least the Lincoln project does something and tells me what they plan to do with my donations. What is the plan of the Democrats to get loud and clear about the horrors of the trump administration? Jen Ruben and Norm Eisen have created the Contrarian, "Unflinching journalism in defense of democracy" (in an act of courage Jen Ruben left the WaPo because of it's bowing to trump and Eisen is among other thing cofounder of CREW) Should we support this endeavor? If so how do we get it more on the national stage, maybe not on TV but through all available social media outlets? Are there any Democratic billionaires (or lots of millionaires who can band together) and are they doing anything and if not, why not and what can we do to get them to put their money where their mouth is? I think it is time to move on from stating the obvious..trump is devastating for America and start taking action while keeping the resistance well informed, but with facts, not gossip or conjecture or the oh so repetitive comments I see about trump in facebook pages, you tubes, that say something like I hate trump or I can't wait till he's gone.... I don't think those comments move our desire to restore democracy forward at all as we need to spend all our energy doing that.
Pat (you write like a male, but it's not clear), I very much doubt AI will create more jobs than it eliminates. Just today, I received a "podcast" from a friend who owns a business he wants to promote more. The "podcast" was a male and a female talking about the business and the industry. But it sounded like song and dance, with questions raised and left unanswered. I called my friend to give the feedback he requested. It turned out the "podcast" was no one, and it was AI that had somehow scoured his business' website, and taken topics and references from there. It was done in five minutes. I pointed out the problems, and suggested he do a real podcast, so that it is complete, specific, and correct.
So, in this case, AI has done something, not done it well, and it really needs to be done by people instead. And you even point out the jobs that will need to be done (imported, you say) by people with critical thinking skills. Since we need people to do work, wouldn't it be better if we improve education and training, and not have to "import" talent? As "we" have foolishly surrendered our rights, which you point out we should reclaim, shouldn't we also reclaim educated and trained workers?
I have found much, but by no means all, of the output of "The Contrarians" to be very good. But not, in my opinion, as good as the best of what we already have on Substack. Lucas Kunce is most certainly one of the prime examples of the excellence already presented in Substack posts.
Billionaires and poly-millionaires do put their money where their mouths are. As I always say, the vast, vast, vast majority of people who get money are not counterfeiters: they do not create their own money. The money they get they take from everyone else. As far as I know, Warren Buffett is a Democrat. And he openly notes, by way of complaint, that his secretary is in a higher tax bracket than he is. You might say that actions speak louder than words, but Buffett, and maybe Gates, who might also be a Democrat, don't fail to take advantage of tax deductions, and don't just pay a fair tax. There's also "Democratic [small d] Millionaires" and "The Lincoln Society," members of each of which include Reps and Dems, and they put their money where their mouths are. More or less. Although it's possible they can't bring themselves to turn over more of their income in taxes, either. Is that what you meant by putting money where people's mouths are? If it is, you're right.
What we need, which I have said ad nauseum, is short campaign seasons and no private money in politics. With that, we'd have a real and functional country. But the only people who could make laws like those are the beneficiaries of the long campaign seasons and abundant private money in politics. So they're not going to even the playing field. Their main goal is re-election.
Well said, especially your final paragraph! I have no idea if AI will create jobs (sooner or later everyone using AI will figure out that their own success will depend on AI being accurate and reliable and that may require AI "technicians" or something. Even the musk/bezos/zuckerburg empires need to be 51% more successful than unsuccessful and that requires data. products based on valid information. And it seems some jobs, like physical therapist will by and large need to still be done by a love person at least for a while. What I don't understand at all is what big business, at least in the US expects to do with all the displaced workers who will not be making any money to spend on their products. Very few businesses survive based on smaller and smaller purchases of whatever they are selling. Of course the jobs that are being created have names that are pretty foreign to me, like AI Engineer/Specialist, AI ethicist (won't be many of them needed in the US as long as maga/musk is in charge), AI solutions analyst (helps a company figure out the best way to use AI). We went through a lot of this when computers took over so much ( how many of us considered the tech support person our best friend in the office and there had not even been a tech support person 5 years before!). From a purely selfish point of view, and I do not mean this in any way to sound snobbish and in fact it's pretty scary because I just ain't that smart..., but I would love to have more folks who had critical thinking skills where I live just to have someone to have an intelligent conversation with!!!! I know they are here, I just can't connect with them as they are so far outnumbered by people who believe Biden has a weather machine in the basement and controlled the weather and do not allow evolution to be taught/mentioned in school. Also thanks for the feedback on Contrarian. I continue to be way to trusting and fear I fall into the trap of believing if someone claims to be a liberal/supporter of equality and justice for all, they are good folks. Usually true, but not always. ,
Great comment. I hope Lucas has a Part III where we can discuss new ways to deliver the message. Democrats keep discussing the message but never discuss new ways to deliver that message. The current Democratic playbook is not working.
My suggestion. The internet allows for 2 way communication, like this substack. Everyone is on the internet in one group or another (Facebook, Substack, Instagram etc.). Let's provide a link, that anyone can use on their group, that allows members of that group to join the discussion on politics, as their own group.
As a group, the members of Jane Doe's Facebook group can also discuss politics, separately. Sally Jone's political group will speak with one voice to a larger group and the larger group will respond. It will be a tiered, scalable system, that allows 2 way communication to the candidates.
We don't have to create a new group, we just need a way for other groups to join as a group. The can speak with one voice and the candidate can respond via a tiered system.
Your idea does sound like a workable plan! At least it is a plan, a proposed idea and if the actions only reach a few folks and change a few minds, it is valuable. Somehow you need to let folks know if it gets implemented.
I'm hoping Lucas Kunce picks up the cause of finding a new message delivery system. There are a lot of really smart people who read this substack that may have ideas to implement it or have better ideas for a new message delivery system.
The most efficient form of government is a dictatorship. Someone has to decide whether they want efficiency, or broad participation and influence. They are mutually exclusive.
It's sort of like the conversation I had with my offspring and some other people: many people are in a position to decide if they want to work for themselves or for someone else. There are pros and cons each way.
I don't agree that dictatorships are efficient. The problem is embedded in the source of their strength; the inability to take advice from others, to get others involved in coming up with solutions. Dictatorships fail because they overreach, because hubris rather than common sense takes over.
I understand your point. Please note that some of them take a long time to fail: they fail either at the death of the dictator, or after successor dictators, too.
Dictatorships are efficient because one person decides what to do, and orders it done. There are no committees, or debates, or need for consensus. Yes, they're loaded with hubris, but that's part of what gets things done. Today, in our "democracy," you might be hard-pressed to detect evidence of common sense. So a democracy is no guarantee of common sense.
Dictatorships are very efficient at doing what the dictator wants done. But they rely on a single source or very limited source to determine what needs to be done. That is where the efficiency fails.
Dictator Joe wants to accomplish A by doing B and C. B and C will be done very efficiently and quickly. But if D would have accomplished A better and faster, it will never be known. And if E would have been better to do than A, it will never be known either.
If you use western governments as an example, they are far messier and less efficient than most dictatorships, but the overall accomplishments are far greater. Even China's accomplishments are significantly based on stolen accomplishments of the US and others.
That is well established. The question is how to educate (not schooling) the workers. The methods the Democrats use are failing. Democrats need to develop a new system to educate the workers or, I agree, they will be eliminated.
The good: Great writing and well-considered points.
The bad: In your latest missive you wrote: "That afternoon him and a buddy installed it for us and saved my siblings and I forty-five minutes of hard labor every night."
Bad grammar spoils good writing. The sentence should've read: "That afternoon HE and a buddy installed it for us and saved my siblings and ME forty-five minutes of hard labor every night."
Just drop the other party out of the expression and say it to yourself. You wouldn't say "That afternoon him installed it for us..." nor would you say "... and saved I forty-five minutes of..."
Lots of good folks make these grammatical errors. As a once upon a time English major, it grates on me. But, I hear it all the time, usually from people who are quite educated
I read, correct and re-read. I repeat that process many times. I still have errors. Most of us don't have professional editors. We will have errors. We need to accept and move on. I suspect there are errors in this.
Thank you for your informative articles. I enjoy reading them. It seems to me that there is a looming problem of worker displacement be can head that off by helping workers transition to more skilled jobs. Recently, on the evening news, the head of the carpenters union was saying that they could give a job to any qualified worker. In another recent example, I was working at a local food bank when one of our clients asked me if I knew where he could get a job. I asked him what he did and he said he was a carpenter. I asked him if he had a smart phone and yes, he said he did. I asked him if he knew how to use it to search for a job. He did not. All he could do was make and receive phone calls.
I think the Democratic Party could do itself and our communities a huge service by doing some outreach for job assistance and worker training.
Thank you for writing on this issue. It seems to be lurking in the back of people's minds but it hasn't been brought to the forefront. People need to be made aware.
Thank you for highlighting this looming threat. The Poor People's Campaign has been all over this issue for years. If only the Dems would listen to PPC and adopt at PPC's "Third Reconstruction" policy agenda, we'd all be much better off.
In rural Kansas, my small town, of 8,000, that was thriving with small business etc., could tell you why automation doesn't work. When I was growing up there, it was 100's of small farmers that fed the economy. 100's of families bought groceries, clothing, appliances, farm equipment from their farm income. Then big farming came in and squeezed out the small farmer. 10 farmer families do not fuel the economy like hundreds of farm families. The economy dipped and population dropped to 5,000. Town folks blame lazy people and immigrants. Nobody talks about the corporate farmer.
Thank you for naming the problem. Why do you think the town folks won’t talk about the corporate farmer?
Because the Corporate farmer is admired. They are astute and savvy business men. The town residents don't link middle class purchase power in an economy to a strong economy. They believe the trickle down theory of economics...and as a fairly conservative community they are easily distracted by the culture wars.
The town has a Walmart...which everyone was excited to get for the lower prices. The two smaller grocery stores who employed more people than Walmart does, closed down. So to me it's simple...more people who earn a livable wage, will fuel the economy...not streamlined manufacturing that reduces the number of employees.
A Walmart store in a new community can reduce the average income by driving out smaller, local businesses due to its low prices, leading to job losses and a decrease in overall economic activity within the community, as smaller businesses often pay higher wages and reinvest more profits locally compared to large corporations like Walmart; this phenomenon is often called "the Walmart effect." https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/12/walmart-prices-poverty-economy/681122/
Walmart's business strategy is to purchase products from local manufacturers until Walmart has over 50% of the revenue for the manufacturer. Next step - ask the manufacturer if they can make it cheaper to wholesale. The manufacturer is unable to. Walmart says the product needs to be cheaper or they will buy from overseas. Since Walmart has over 50% of its revenue, the manufacturer goes out of business.
For example, let's say Walmart is buying snowshoes from a US manufacturer. Over 50% of their wholesale customer base is from Walmart. Walmart wants to buy the snowshoes at a lower wholesale price or they will buy from overseas. That cuts into the snowshoe guy's revenue causing the snowshoe guy to go out of business. Walmart pulls out and buys from overseas. The Snowshoe guy still goes out of business and there go the jobs. Shareholders make more money. But who has the income to buy the snowshoes now?
And this is why I shop privately owned grocery stores, and small businesses in Berkeley and neighboring communities. I will go to Penneys and Macys in the mall in Concord for a few things, but everything else, no. We're getting a new heat pump stove manufactured about 10 blocks away and the company (four blocks away) that put up our solar is going to install a storage battery next month.
Thank you for sharing the facts. I know about this. It’s a preventable tragedy that the town folks do not.
The forest was shrinking,
but the trees kept voting for the axe, as its handle was made of wood,
And they thought it was one of them.
Is that what the phrase “can’t see the forest for the trees” means?
Wow. That’s a perfect metaphor. Thank you.
Thank you for explaining the local thinking.
Make work is not the answer. Lucas isn't suggesting make work. Innovation is a good thing.
We need to enforce anti trust laws to allow for competition. We need to enforce overtime laws so there is a penalty to employers. We need to adjust the work week. We need to allow for a social safety net so employers know the employees have an option.
The problem isn't the efficiencies of Walmart and Amazon, it is that they are so large and powerful they can dictate wages and dictate prices to small manufacturers.
In many ways Walmart and Amazon are not more efficient, but they are more powerful. They don't have to have a better service or product, because they are the only game in town.
We need to swing the balance of power pendulum back toward the people.
Forgive me. How are you tying immigrants to this? Are town folks really becoming lazy or is there a lack of jobs?
I'm not tyng immigrants to this or believe town folks are lazy. They just have a sense that there is some reason for the decline. Rather than take the time to understand the decide, they are parroting Fox news explanations for why the economy feels so messed up..
Capitalism works as long as there is government to ensure the playing field remains reasonably level. Unchecked market power is a malignancy that leads to oligopoly which leads to authoritarianism. We are on the doorstep of this.
The Capitalist solution to this is Trade Unions. Since the employers have a monopoly on jobs the workers must secure control over available labor. Or do we want to go back to the pre-union days with 90 hour work weeks, no benefits and child labor?
Hopefully we are on the doorstep, but I'm guessing we've entered the building already.
What you said is obvious and blatant. What Lucas has said is obvious and blatant. Why doesn't the American public think unchecked power is the problem?
Hopefully Lucas has a Part III where he discusses how to let the public know what the real problem is. If the public understands, they will demand a fix.
Yes, this is what is happening right under our noses. A new robot is making meal deliveries in our town. There won't be a job at all for many people pretty soon. But how to make this message get out? Stories are the key. "Muckracking" journalism was key to the Progressive Era.
Innovation is not the problem. Managing the innovation is. I don't want to ride a horse to work instead of driving a car.
Lucas, I read your article with great interest. I know what you say is true and is happening in real time. What I need is a specific "how to" article on what to do about it. I donated to your campaigns, believe in you, and voted for you...as I did for the majority of Democrats on my ballot. I've marched, written letters, made phone calls and signed petitions. I don't have buyer's remorse, but I am frustrated that my known go-tos seems so futile. I am a retired USAF senior NCO who went on to teach (retired now also) Special Education. I do not have the income to fight back with money and I fear that is the weapon required. I thank you for your insight and love that you are on Substack.
Carolyn makes the point Give us your thoughts on concrete and effective actions
I receive daily requests for financial donations…but I won’t give money… but I will give my time. Tell the people what we can do. Get petitions signed, hold town halls, rally your base with truth. We are ready and we are listening.
Control the message and you control the people.
The problems and fixes are obvious, as Lucas has described.
Hopefully Lucas has a Part III where we can discuss ideas to deliver the message to the people. If the people understand, they will demand a fix.
Attend ALL local meetings, your school board, your city council, your county commissioner, your Chamber of Congress, ALL. Fill your community with hope. Dont be a fence sitter.
https://open.substack.com/pub/sharonlawrence/p/elections-breaking-down-the-red-wall-a0b?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=a5esd
Smart campaigns can be run without a lot of money. Eric Cantor, firner Republican leader, lost his house seat to a guy who didn't $12000 as I recall.
I donated heavily (for me) to both of your campaigns. I like your philosophy and what you say. I read your essay about how personally expensive campaigns are and I understand, but I hope you run again. If you do, I will again donate heavily.
There is a lot of very sound economics in your argument. But what about psychology? It isn't rational but a lot of people just seem to love billionaires. Look at West Virginia, one of the poorest states. The Governor is billionaire Jim Justice, he is very popular. All of his businesses use bankruptcy as a negotiating tactic. He pays bills only when forced. Of course, Justice hates Unions. But Justice is 6 ft, 6 in. tall, coaches a girls basketball team and owns the Greenbriar Hotel, a beloved institution.
Damned good stuff, Lucas!
Technology can do wonderful things. Innovation is the driving force. We need to consider what is ethical. Just because it can be done doesn't make it a good idea. Computers were supposed to save us time. Now we are slaves to them.
Automating everything and reducing the number of jobs reduces the number of consumers to purchase products. Unintended consequences. We need to look ahead and around the corners to avoid the consequences. Will we learn? Probably not.
Innovation is not the problem. Without it we'd be riding horses to work. Management of the innovation is the problem.
This an excellent read about this topic. Have you shared or discussed with any current members of Congress, particularly Democrats? Our leaders need to be kept informed about all of these possible scenarios! I fear the future for my grandchildren and grandchildren nieces!
All well said and true and I agree there is almost no stopping this in America. Information I have read what I think are reliable sources (McKinney Global Institute, Worl Economic Forum) it seems AI will create more jobs than it will eliminate, BUT they will be jobs that require much more critical thinking skills than the jobs it eliminates and the US this will be a big problem as our education will do less and less to encourage critical thinking skills, and the DOGE brothers are tight, we will need to import high quality workers from other nations. Somehow we have to get that message out to the voters of America...this is what they choose, do not blame the billionaire, blame yourselves and do not do any whining. There may be a small chance we can reclaim some of our rights if enough voters see the light and vote out a few maga MOCs to take the majority away from trump but this will require a lot of work on the part of people who value democracy and I am still waiting to hear concrete actions the DNC or anyone plans to take...how will the DNC reach more voters...what they did last time did not work and all I hear from them is we have to work harder but not how we will work smarter. At least the Lincoln project does something and tells me what they plan to do with my donations. What is the plan of the Democrats to get loud and clear about the horrors of the trump administration? Jen Ruben and Norm Eisen have created the Contrarian, "Unflinching journalism in defense of democracy" (in an act of courage Jen Ruben left the WaPo because of it's bowing to trump and Eisen is among other thing cofounder of CREW) Should we support this endeavor? If so how do we get it more on the national stage, maybe not on TV but through all available social media outlets? Are there any Democratic billionaires (or lots of millionaires who can band together) and are they doing anything and if not, why not and what can we do to get them to put their money where their mouth is? I think it is time to move on from stating the obvious..trump is devastating for America and start taking action while keeping the resistance well informed, but with facts, not gossip or conjecture or the oh so repetitive comments I see about trump in facebook pages, you tubes, that say something like I hate trump or I can't wait till he's gone.... I don't think those comments move our desire to restore democracy forward at all as we need to spend all our energy doing that.
Pat (you write like a male, but it's not clear), I very much doubt AI will create more jobs than it eliminates. Just today, I received a "podcast" from a friend who owns a business he wants to promote more. The "podcast" was a male and a female talking about the business and the industry. But it sounded like song and dance, with questions raised and left unanswered. I called my friend to give the feedback he requested. It turned out the "podcast" was no one, and it was AI that had somehow scoured his business' website, and taken topics and references from there. It was done in five minutes. I pointed out the problems, and suggested he do a real podcast, so that it is complete, specific, and correct.
So, in this case, AI has done something, not done it well, and it really needs to be done by people instead. And you even point out the jobs that will need to be done (imported, you say) by people with critical thinking skills. Since we need people to do work, wouldn't it be better if we improve education and training, and not have to "import" talent? As "we" have foolishly surrendered our rights, which you point out we should reclaim, shouldn't we also reclaim educated and trained workers?
I have found much, but by no means all, of the output of "The Contrarians" to be very good. But not, in my opinion, as good as the best of what we already have on Substack. Lucas Kunce is most certainly one of the prime examples of the excellence already presented in Substack posts.
Billionaires and poly-millionaires do put their money where their mouths are. As I always say, the vast, vast, vast majority of people who get money are not counterfeiters: they do not create their own money. The money they get they take from everyone else. As far as I know, Warren Buffett is a Democrat. And he openly notes, by way of complaint, that his secretary is in a higher tax bracket than he is. You might say that actions speak louder than words, but Buffett, and maybe Gates, who might also be a Democrat, don't fail to take advantage of tax deductions, and don't just pay a fair tax. There's also "Democratic [small d] Millionaires" and "The Lincoln Society," members of each of which include Reps and Dems, and they put their money where their mouths are. More or less. Although it's possible they can't bring themselves to turn over more of their income in taxes, either. Is that what you meant by putting money where people's mouths are? If it is, you're right.
What we need, which I have said ad nauseum, is short campaign seasons and no private money in politics. With that, we'd have a real and functional country. But the only people who could make laws like those are the beneficiaries of the long campaign seasons and abundant private money in politics. So they're not going to even the playing field. Their main goal is re-election.
Well said, especially your final paragraph! I have no idea if AI will create jobs (sooner or later everyone using AI will figure out that their own success will depend on AI being accurate and reliable and that may require AI "technicians" or something. Even the musk/bezos/zuckerburg empires need to be 51% more successful than unsuccessful and that requires data. products based on valid information. And it seems some jobs, like physical therapist will by and large need to still be done by a love person at least for a while. What I don't understand at all is what big business, at least in the US expects to do with all the displaced workers who will not be making any money to spend on their products. Very few businesses survive based on smaller and smaller purchases of whatever they are selling. Of course the jobs that are being created have names that are pretty foreign to me, like AI Engineer/Specialist, AI ethicist (won't be many of them needed in the US as long as maga/musk is in charge), AI solutions analyst (helps a company figure out the best way to use AI). We went through a lot of this when computers took over so much ( how many of us considered the tech support person our best friend in the office and there had not even been a tech support person 5 years before!). From a purely selfish point of view, and I do not mean this in any way to sound snobbish and in fact it's pretty scary because I just ain't that smart..., but I would love to have more folks who had critical thinking skills where I live just to have someone to have an intelligent conversation with!!!! I know they are here, I just can't connect with them as they are so far outnumbered by people who believe Biden has a weather machine in the basement and controlled the weather and do not allow evolution to be taught/mentioned in school. Also thanks for the feedback on Contrarian. I continue to be way to trusting and fear I fall into the trap of believing if someone claims to be a liberal/supporter of equality and justice for all, they are good folks. Usually true, but not always. ,
Great comment. I hope Lucas has a Part III where we can discuss new ways to deliver the message. Democrats keep discussing the message but never discuss new ways to deliver that message. The current Democratic playbook is not working.
My suggestion. The internet allows for 2 way communication, like this substack. Everyone is on the internet in one group or another (Facebook, Substack, Instagram etc.). Let's provide a link, that anyone can use on their group, that allows members of that group to join the discussion on politics, as their own group.
As a group, the members of Jane Doe's Facebook group can also discuss politics, separately. Sally Jone's political group will speak with one voice to a larger group and the larger group will respond. It will be a tiered, scalable system, that allows 2 way communication to the candidates.
We don't have to create a new group, we just need a way for other groups to join as a group. The can speak with one voice and the candidate can respond via a tiered system.
I'm sure there are many other options.
Your idea does sound like a workable plan! At least it is a plan, a proposed idea and if the actions only reach a few folks and change a few minds, it is valuable. Somehow you need to let folks know if it gets implemented.
I'm hoping Lucas Kunce picks up the cause of finding a new message delivery system. There are a lot of really smart people who read this substack that may have ideas to implement it or have better ideas for a new message delivery system.
The most efficient form of government is a dictatorship. Someone has to decide whether they want efficiency, or broad participation and influence. They are mutually exclusive.
It's sort of like the conversation I had with my offspring and some other people: many people are in a position to decide if they want to work for themselves or for someone else. There are pros and cons each way.
I don't agree that dictatorships are efficient. The problem is embedded in the source of their strength; the inability to take advice from others, to get others involved in coming up with solutions. Dictatorships fail because they overreach, because hubris rather than common sense takes over.
I understand your point. Please note that some of them take a long time to fail: they fail either at the death of the dictator, or after successor dictators, too.
Dictatorships are efficient because one person decides what to do, and orders it done. There are no committees, or debates, or need for consensus. Yes, they're loaded with hubris, but that's part of what gets things done. Today, in our "democracy," you might be hard-pressed to detect evidence of common sense. So a democracy is no guarantee of common sense.
Dictatorships are very efficient at doing what the dictator wants done. But they rely on a single source or very limited source to determine what needs to be done. That is where the efficiency fails.
Dictator Joe wants to accomplish A by doing B and C. B and C will be done very efficiently and quickly. But if D would have accomplished A better and faster, it will never be known. And if E would have been better to do than A, it will never be known either.
If you use western governments as an example, they are far messier and less efficient than most dictatorships, but the overall accomplishments are far greater. Even China's accomplishments are significantly based on stolen accomplishments of the US and others.
Great article, Dems need to get on this message in this manner. Easy to understand! Workers in US better get educated before they are eliminated.
That is well established. The question is how to educate (not schooling) the workers. The methods the Democrats use are failing. Democrats need to develop a new system to educate the workers or, I agree, they will be eliminated.
The good: Great writing and well-considered points.
The bad: In your latest missive you wrote: "That afternoon him and a buddy installed it for us and saved my siblings and I forty-five minutes of hard labor every night."
Bad grammar spoils good writing. The sentence should've read: "That afternoon HE and a buddy installed it for us and saved my siblings and ME forty-five minutes of hard labor every night."
Just drop the other party out of the expression and say it to yourself. You wouldn't say "That afternoon him installed it for us..." nor would you say "... and saved I forty-five minutes of..."
Hope you find this helpful.
Kind regards.
Lots of good folks make these grammatical errors. As a once upon a time English major, it grates on me. But, I hear it all the time, usually from people who are quite educated
I read, correct and re-read. I repeat that process many times. I still have errors. Most of us don't have professional editors. We will have errors. We need to accept and move on. I suspect there are errors in this.
Sometimes it's a function of being pressed for time. Good writing takes lots of time for editing
Thank you for your informative articles. I enjoy reading them. It seems to me that there is a looming problem of worker displacement be can head that off by helping workers transition to more skilled jobs. Recently, on the evening news, the head of the carpenters union was saying that they could give a job to any qualified worker. In another recent example, I was working at a local food bank when one of our clients asked me if I knew where he could get a job. I asked him what he did and he said he was a carpenter. I asked him if he had a smart phone and yes, he said he did. I asked him if he knew how to use it to search for a job. He did not. All he could do was make and receive phone calls.
I think the Democratic Party could do itself and our communities a huge service by doing some outreach for job assistance and worker training.
Every library has job search workshops....
Thank you for writing on this issue. It seems to be lurking in the back of people's minds but it hasn't been brought to the forefront. People need to be made aware.
Thank you for highlighting this looming threat. The Poor People's Campaign has been all over this issue for years. If only the Dems would listen to PPC and adopt at PPC's "Third Reconstruction" policy agenda, we'd all be much better off.